Mason-Dixon and the Richmond Times-Dispatch have a new poll out today confirming Jim Webb’s recent surge of momentum in the past week, showing Webb up 46-45–the first time that Webb has edged Allen in any Mason-Dixon poll. Take a look at the trend (likely voters, MoE: ±4):
Webb (D) | Allen (R) | Parker (I) | Unsure | |
---|---|---|---|---|
11/1-3/06 | 46 | 45 | 2 | 7 |
10/17-19/06 | 43 | 47 | 2 | 8 |
9/5-7/06 | 42 | 46 | N/A | 12 |
7/25-27/06 | 32 | 48 | N/A | 20 |
Does this give you a little bit of déjà vu? Hmm, I wonder what Mason-Dixon’s numbers from last year’s gubernatorial race looked like (likely voters, MoE: ±4):
Kaine (D) | Kilgore (R) | Potts (I) | Unsure | |
---|---|---|---|---|
11/2-3/05 | 45 | 44 | 4 | 7 |
10/18-20/05 | 42 | 44 | 5 | 9 |
9/13-15/05 | 40 | 41 | 6 | 13 |
7/19-21/05 | 38 | 37 | 9 | 16 |
Hmm… a Republican campaign caught dealing with the backlash of scurrilous, ridiculous attacks on their opponent (that is, you know, when they’re not beating people up)? The Democrat receiving a groundswell of support from the grassroots all the way up to former Governors Mark Warner and Doug Wilder? The Democrat surging in the vote-rich “suburban crescent” of Northern Viriginia?
It’s beginning to feel a bit like November 2005 to me. I am feeling it, yes indeed. And now for the requisite caution: but, like David says, nothing should be considered a lock at this point. Let’s out-hussle the Republicans everywhere and seal the deal. Bring it all home to me, people.
I’ve been talking with my bud in the Virginia Democratic Black Caucus and he is very positive about this happening. CNN/Opinion Research has just released a poll:
Webb 50
Allen 46
Undecided 4
MOE=4%
Here’s the link to the article: http://www.dailypres…
And they do not offer that info. On other VA races for which I have seen data the undecided skew center-right.
But, if Webb does pull it off, most amusing will be the increased TO from black ministers whipping the vote on the Gay Marriage Amendment. If Allen loses, the margin just might come from a GMA backfiring.
I hope Webb can make it.
So, does that mean they are accurate on Tenn. also?? They are saying Corker is up by 12. Sadly they might be correct.